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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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