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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08 ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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