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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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