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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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