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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42  ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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