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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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