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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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