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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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