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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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