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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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