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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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