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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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