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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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