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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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