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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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