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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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