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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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