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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last s ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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