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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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