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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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