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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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