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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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