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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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