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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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