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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
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Showing 3231 to 3235 news of total 6871 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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