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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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