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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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