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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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