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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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