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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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