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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08 ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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