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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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