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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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