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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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