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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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