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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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