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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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