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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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