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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
Sunday, 19 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUSHES DOWN COAL FREIGHT RATES; VOLATILITY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened including BDI except for Panamax index.
The BDI was down by1.70 pct and clsoed at 944 points ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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