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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
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