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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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