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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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