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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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