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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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