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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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