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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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