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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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