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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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