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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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