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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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