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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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