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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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