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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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