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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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