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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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