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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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