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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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