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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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