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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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