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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.4% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) o ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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