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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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