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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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